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Although the working day in October was one week less than normal, I visited 10 cities within 20 days, attended 5 hydrogen energy industry-related conferences, 1 fund company exchange meeting, and visited two companies. Scientific research institutes and 5 hydrogen energy-related companies missed several meetings in Shanghai. Hydrogen energy, it looks so "hot"!

But companies in the hydrogen energy industry are still bitter and happy, I.Research on hydrogen energy industry will begin in 2018, and capital will chase fuel cell and related parts projects from 2018 to 2021. From 2021 to 2022, enterprises related to hydrogen station compressors will be pursued. By 2022 and 2023, electrolyzer enterprises will become hot spots in the industry again......

In fact, such an industrial chain from the application end of fuel cell to the upstream green hydrogen has not been opened up. The downstream vehicles are still local demonstrations and the sales volume has not broken through. Therefore, after the hydrogen refueling station is built, the upstream hydrogen supply is insufficient and the downstream vehicles do not have enough hydrogen refueling,In 2023, the progress of the construction of hydrogen refueling stations by energy enterprises has also slowed down significantly, leaving some newly added areas to build one or two basic stations locally. Orders from engineering units and equipment suppliers of hydrogen refueling stations have dropped seriously. However, looking at the global hydrogen energy development trend and national policies, and the outbreak of green hydrogen industry at home and abroad, no one dares to despise the future of hydrogen energy. As a result, the industry is in the "hope and despair", "busy and depressed" intertwined.

Not all readers can participate in the industry exchange meeting. Some readers asked me to share the most recent talk on the "Industry Observer" platform."The third hydrogen energy wave", so in this issue, I will share the core ideas about the "third hydrogen energy wave", hoping that we can observe the inevitability of hydrogen energy development from the perspective of historical development.We believe that afterWith the development of the three waves of hydrogen energy in more than 50 years, the current technical conditions have entered the turning point of industrialization, and the larger demand market still needs realistic incentive policies and hydrogen energy incentive mechanism.

Four Driving Forces of Hydrogen Energy Development

The four core driving forces of hydrogen energy development are: getting rid of resource constraints, getting rid of environmental constraints, solving renewable energy consumption, and reviving traditional industries.
Earlier, when I was studying the driving forces of hydrogen energy development, I summarized two major driving forces: namely"Get rid of resource constraints" and "get rid of environmental constraints". The initial driving force of hydrogen energy industrialization is energy substitution. If we analyze the countries with hydrogen energy development in the world, we will find that Japan, South Korea, Germany, China and other energy resource importing countries are more active. From the history of human energy development, from the era of firewood to the era of coal, then to oil and gas, and then to renewable energy, it is a process of continuous carbon reduction. So, I think the two driving forces for hydrogen development are energy independence and carbon reduction.
Source:IEA

However, the explosion of the green hydrogen industry in the past two years has come from another driving force, namely'Tackling the consumption of renewable energy’. Because of the sharp decline in the cost of renewable energy, coupled with the pressure of global carbon reduction, wind energy, photovoltaic and other renewable energy investment enthusiasm continues to rise, but wind power and photovoltaic are inherently intermittent and unstable, hydrogen energy is the only solution to the problem of renewable energy volatility that can achieve long-term, cross-regional energy storage. The fourth driving force"Reviving traditional industries”It is the relevant enterprises that observe the layout of hydrogen energy that put forward, in "who eliminated electric vehicles" (2006) There is a detail in this movie. When the U.S. federal government reached a compromise with car companies and oil companies, it spent $1.2 billion to develop fuel cell vehicles, because oil companies and car companies have a living space in the field of fuel cell vehicles. Far larger than the electric vehicle field. If we look at today's global hydrogen energy industry chain, we will find that energy companies, equipment manufacturing, chemical companies and other traditional manufacturing industries can find room to play in the hydrogen energy industry chain. Importantly, the third energy revolution is from oil and gas to renewable energy. In fact, the basic attribute of energy has changed from resource industry to science and technology manufacturing industry. Among them, hydrogen energy industry chain is the longest. Compared with lithium-ion electric vehicles, hydrogen-based energy (which may be fuel cell, hydrogen internal combustion or methanol, green ammonia, etc.) is more friendly to traditional industries.

Three waves of hydrogen energy in the world

I summarize the development of hydrogen energy industrialization as three waves of hydrogen energy, mainly from the perspective of motivating factors and industrialization.

The first wave of hydrogen energy (1970): Oil substitution. In the 1950 s and 1960 s, fuel cells were successfully applied in the aerospace field. At the same time, the relationship between the world's oil-consuming countries and oil-producing countries was tense. People considered the civil use of fuel cell technology in the aerospace field. General Motors launched its first fuel cell technology in 1966. In 1970, Professor John Bockris first proposed the "hydrogen economy" in a speech at the General Motors (General Motors) Technology Center ".

When the first energy crisis occurred in 1973, hydrogen was portrayed as replacing oil as the main energy source to support the global economy, and the market operation system for the production, distribution, storage and use of hydrogen energy was established. Europe, Japan and other countries followed up on hydrogen energy research. Japan proposed the "Sunshine Plan". BMW launched the first hydrogen-powered prototype in 1979.

But inIn 1974, the United States and Saudi Arabia reached an informal "unshakable agreement": the United States sold military weapons to Saudi Arabia, while protecting Saudi Arabia's homeland security from Israel; Saudi Arabia accepted the US dollar as the only pricing and settlement currency for oil exports.Oil quickly returned to normal prices and the industrialization of hydrogen energy was slowed down.

The second wave of hydrogen energy (1990): California Zero Carbon Act. The industrial revolution brought prosperity to the western developed countries, but also brought the pressure of environmental pollution. In 1990, California introduced the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV, or ZEV, including BEV and FCEV) Act, which forced car companies to promote ZEV by mandating the percentage of zero-emission vehicle sales and credit line points. At the same time, the issue of climate change has also received attention from Japan and Europe, and hydrogen energy has been mentioned again. Just during this period, the patent of fuel cell in the aerospace field expired. The United States considered making this technology civilian, and once again proposed a plan for the development of hydrogen energy. This time, it proposed a bill for research, development and demonstration. Year management plan ".

This time, the major automobile brands in the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea include General Motors and Ford in the United States, Daimler, BMW and Audi in Europe, Toyota, Honda and Nissan in Japan, and Hyundai in South Korea have all launched iterative products of fuel cells or hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles. Dongfeng Motor of China has launched30kW fuel cell demonstration vehicle EQ640. This time, the fuel cell vehicles in Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have a cruising range of 600km or even more, and achieved a low temperature start of minus 30°C, which means that they have reached the basic performance of the car in experience.

However, the second wave of hydrogen energy still did not solve the cost problem of fuel cell vehicles, and encountered the financial crisis and the United States.911 events. In the next time, lithium-ion batteries will be easier to close the industrial chain due to the advancement of battery technology. In particular, China launched the "Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles" incentive policy in 2009, until 2012.Global electric vehicle sales have reached120000 vehicles, reaching 222500 vehicles in 2013However, the cost of fuel cells is still high. European and American brands have suspended fuel cell vehicle projects. Only Toyota, Honda and Hyundai in Asian countries are still insisting, while start-ups in China and North America have been insisting on the development and application of fuel cells.

Source: Based on publicly available information

The third wave of hydrogen energy (2014-2015): Paris Agreement. On November 18, 2014, when the fuel cell industry was very anxious, Toyota announced that it would launch the first fuel cell vehicle "Mirai" for the mass market in China. The fuel of this vehicle named "Future" is hydrogen., The emission is water, which is truly zero emission.

In the lithium-ion battery car is still for charging time, mileage anxiety,Mirai takes about 3 minutes to hydrogenate once and has a range of 650 kilometers. At the same time, Toyota announced that the cost of the fuel cell system has dropped to 1/20 of that in 2008. Mirai's ex-factory price is 7.236 million yen (about 470000 RMB). After taking into account the state subsidy of 2.02 million yen and the local subsidy of 1.01 million yen, the actual amount paid by consumers is about 4.2 million yen. This is a turning point for the world's fuel cell vehicle industry, and the global fuel cell vehicle industry has returned to confidence.

On December 12, 2015, the Paris Agreement, a climate agreement adopted by 195 member states of the United Nations at the 2015 United Nations Climate Summit, hopes to jointly curb the trend of global warming. The agreement makes arrangements for global action on climate change after 2020. The main goal of the "Paris Agreement" is to limit the global average temperature rise in this century to 2 degrees Celsius, and to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level. This became the core driving force of the third hydrogen energy wave. Next, more than 30 countries around the world released hydrogen energy development strategies around 2020.

This process is accompanied by fuel cell-related materials such as catalysts, proton exchange membranes, carbon paper, membrane electrodes, air compressors, hydrogen circulation pumps,Type IV hydrogen storage bottles, as well as reactors, fuel cell systems, hydrogenation station compressors, hydrogen valves, hydrogenation machines, sensors, etc., interdisciplinary supporting capabilities and technological advances, more than 50 years of practice are verifying the performance of fuel cells And reduce the cost of fuel cells. From 2018 to 2023, the cost of domestic fuel cell systems in China will drop from 20000 yuan/kW to about 2000 yuan/kW.

There are three waves of hydrogen energy: the first is that the car can run; the second is the transition of fuel cell vehicles from the laboratory to commercialization to realize the functions of the car; the third stage is that the existing fuel cell vehicles have entered the stage of commercial promotion, To achieve the economy of the car.

Three Core Conditions of Fuel Cell Vehicle Industrialization

The industrialization of fuel cell vehicles requires three core conditions, namely safety, economy and sustainability.

Meet the requirements of hydrogen energy storage and transportation performance and cost.Security.Globally there are94 million tons/year of hydrogen production, but when it comes to hydrogen energy, why is it so sensitive to safety? Mainly because hydrogen as an energy source to achieve a certain energy density must use high-pressure or liquid hydrogen storage to meet the energy density requirements of vehicles, hydrogen high-pressure storage is faced with hydrogencrispThe risk of high pressure and leakage, while also taking care of the lightweight of the vehicle hydrogen storage device.

In the early 1990 s, Brunswick Company successfully developed a composite material for the inner tank of hydrogen storage bottles, high-density polyethylene, which has a wide range of temperature, elongation as high as 700 percent, and good impact toughness and fracture toughness. With the support of this material, IV bottle technology came into being. Around 2013, the IV bottle was applied to fuel cell vehicles abroad, and achieved good results. At present, IV bottles have been widely used in the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and other countries, and Hexagon, Toyota, Faurecia and other companies have mass production capacity. In May 2023, China's National Standards Management Committee officially released the "Compressed Hydrogen Plastic Liner Carbon Fiber Full Winding Cylinder for Vehicles", and it will be implemented on June 1, 2024, CIMC, Shenyang Slinda, Sinoma Technology, Beijing Coteco and other domestic enterprises are preparing for the mass production of IV bottles. AP of the United States, French liquid air and Linde gas are the world's important liquid hydrogen suppliers. At present, China's liquid hydrogen technology mainly comes from the aerospace military launch system. At present, this technology has entered the industrialization process. It is important that the requirements for insulation materials and seals are relatively high to prevent volatilization and leakage.

FranceANR Research Agency FundedOSIRHYS ⅣThe purpose of the project is to break throughⅣThe technical bottleneck of the cylinder is solved from the aspects of simulation, design and trial production.70MPa ⅣTechnical difficulties of type C gas cylinders; UKUK TSBfinanced the country'sHOSTproject, the project plans to invest100 £ 10,000 to study composite cylinders with thermoplastic liner; US Department of Energy(DOE)Early in2002 Planning for hydrogen storage has been under way since10 Years of development,DOEThe research report has covered many aspects such as hydrogen production, storage and transportation, and use.

Hexagon is the world's most professional independent supplier of IV bottles. At present, the company's IV bottles have been in safe operation for 20 years and will be put into production by the end of this year. Toyota has been operating IV bottles for nearly 10 years since Mirai was released.

Type IV bottles are not only lighter than type III bottles, but also have a much simpler process than type III bottles. From more than 30 processes of aluminum liner to 3 processes of plastic liner, the cost of type IV bottles is reduced to 1/4-1/2 of the cost of type III bottles.

fuel cellEconomy.The 2006 documentary "Who Knockedown Electric Vehicles" mentioned that the price of human battery cars reached US $1 million per car at that time, and the price of the first batch of fuel cell cars launched in Japan reached 0.1 billion yen (about 6 million yuan). Catalysts for fuel cell vehicles involve precious metals, reducing the platinum load of fuel cells, innovation in materials and processes, and large-scale manufacturing are the main ways for fuel cell vehicles to achieve economy. In 2014, Toyota said the cost of fuel cell systems fell to 1/20 of what it was in 2008.

Fuel Cell System Cost Change, Source: Toyota Motor

The third condition isSustainability. Sustainability manifests itself in circular economy and sustainability of hydrogen sources. There are two unsustainable concerns about fossil energy, one is limited reserves, and the other is that carbon dioxide emissions cause global warming and human development is unsustainable. If new energy is still pinned on limited resources and carbon dioxide emissions, the goal of sustainable development cannot be achieved. Fuel cells involve precious metals, but platinum is recyclable.More than 90%, and the recovery process is simple, can form a circular economy. The sustainability of hydrogen source determines the sustainability of hydrogen energy industry. The cost of renewable energy has fallen dramatically over the past decade, making renewable hydrogen possible.

Source: Based on publicly available information

Source: Based on publicly available information

In other words, in the past ten years, the safety, economy and sustainable conditions of hydrogen energy application have basically been achieved, which makes the industrialization of hydrogen energy possible.

What's different about the third hydrogen wave?

First of all, compared with the previous two waves of hydrogen energy, the technology of the third wave of hydrogen energy is more mature, and the conditions for hydrogen energy industrialization tend to be mature.

From the last centuryThe three waves of hydrogen energy that began in the 1970 s were basically the waves of hydrogen energy industrialization led by fuel cell vehicles,The first wave of hydrogen energy fuel cell vehicles can run; the second wave of hydrogen energy has reached the basic performance of traditional vehicles; the third wave of hydrogen energy has achieved the economy of fuel cell vehicles.

It is also the third wave of hydrogen energy. Safe and economical hydrogen storage technology is basically mature, and solid-state hydrogen storage and organic compound hydrogen storage are also breaking through. The greater certainty is that the cost of renewable energy continues to decline. The cost of photovoltaics in some areas has reached0.1-0.2 yuan/kWh.

Second, the goal of global carbon reduction is more urgent. In recent years, extreme weather in various countries has brought more and more destructive effects, and mankind is facing huge environmental challenges.

Source：Xu Yidan, Li Jianping, Wang Qiuyun, Lin Xiaopei《A Review of Research Progress on Global Warming Stagnation (2021）

The third difference is that more countries and enterprises are involved. Under the constraints of the Paris Agreement, the potential energy of hydrogen energy has been formed, and the industrial chain is more complete. Although fuel cell vehicles can run in the first two times and have reached the basic performance of fuel vehicles, they are not economical and difficult to promote. Therefore, they are mainly manifested in the optimization of fuel cell technology and the improvement of supporting facilities, and the hydrogen supply end The workload is not big. In the third wave of hydrogen energy, we found that more energy enterprises and international and domestic brand industrial enterprises have entered the field of hydrogen energy, whether it is the international market.BP, Chevron, Shell ...... or domestic coal enterprises, "three barrels of oil", "five big four small" and other energy enterprises, as well as Siemens, Bosch, ThyssenKrupp, Weichai, CIMC, Longji, Sunshine, Sany and other industrial enterprises have laid out hydrogen energy, storage and transportation plus the whole industrial chain began to exert force.

Comparison of three hydrogen energy waves, source: compiled by Industry Observer.

China's hydrogen energy selfSince the establishment of the first fuel cell enterprise in 1998, it has gone through two stages: 1998-2019 is the development stage of fuel cell dominated by venture capital. In this stage, several fuel cell industry clusters have been formed, the core components have been localized, the performance of fuel cell has been continuously improved, and the cost reduction path is very clear. The second stage is that hydrogen will be written into the government work report in 2019 and hydrogen will be incorporated into the energy system, energy enterprises have laid out hydrogen energy and led the upstream and midstream hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation and hydrogenation station business, began to build a closed-loop ecological chain of hydrogen energy industry chain.

The fourth difference is that the closed loop of the industrial chain is becoming possible. The maturity of fuel cell technology just meets the bottleneck of renewable energy consumption. In the past, fuel cell vehicles were expensive to add hydrogen, or even no hydrogen. At this stage, the consumption of renewable energy has created conditions for the low-cost manufacture of green hydrogen. The project of green hydrogen production in the upstream has promoted the infrastructure construction of hydrogen storage and transportation, and the upstream and downstream will soon be opened up.

This is an exciting time, remember I mentioned in the previous article, the beginning of photovoltaic and fuel cell technology areIn 1839, there was a pamphlet that is basically not available in the market now: "Sun-Hydrogen Energy-Power to Save the Earth" written by John O & M.Bockris in 1991. He predicted that the coupling of solar energy and hydrogen would become the energy source to save the earth.

Where does the anxiety of hydrogen energy development come from?

So after such a long evolution, the conditions for efficiency and cost distance industrialization have been so clear, and the actual pressure of carbon reduction is imminent, how can the development of hydrogen energy be so anxious?

1. Extrusion effect of lithium-ion battery vehicles

InWho wiped out the electric car?: It answers the question of why it is so difficult for traditional enterprises to changeIn this article we reviewDr. Joseph J., who has written a book called "The Hoax of Hydrogen" against hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, argues that hydrogen is the worst alternative energy option of all, unless it develops five wonders:（1) The average cost per car is 1 million US dollars, and this price must be greatly reduced;(2) There are no known man-made materials that can allow us to store enough hydrogen in the car to ensure sufficient mileage;(3) The cost of hydrogen is surprisingly expensive, even hydrogen extracted from poor fossil energy is 2-3 times more expensive than gasoline;
（4) There must be enough hydrogen refueling network. There are now 180000 gas stations. Before people are interested in hydrogen power, at least 1-20000 hydrogen refueling stations need to be built;
（5) You have to pray that the alternative energy competitors don't do better, because the best cars in the market have made great progress. Hybrid power can be refueled at the original gas station. Hybrid power uses electric motors to improve fuel efficiency. Its cruising range is twice that of fuel vehicles. If battery technology can continue to improve, hybrid vehicles will far exceed fuel by 2020. Cell car.Interestingly, these fiveIn the "miracle", the first three "miracles" have already happened, and the fourth "miracle" is still happening although it is subject to the influence of the fifth "miracle". Only the last "miracle" is on the contrary. Electric vehicles, including pure electric and hybrid power, not only do not "do better", but also exceed expectations.

"Electric vehicles are so good, is it necessary to engage in fuel cell vehicles?" This is the most tortured sentence for the development of fuel cell vehicles.

There is not much room for growth in total demand for automobiles. Fuel vehicle production capacity plus new electric vehicle production capacity is already overcapacity. If fuel cell vehicles are reinvested, it will inevitably lead to greater supply. At this stage, the automobile industry has created a large amount of inventory, and the price of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles is competing to reduce prices. The economic benefits of the automobile industry are undergoing a serious test. Some fuel vehicle parts companies that have no substitute products in new energy vehicles are facing complete vehicles. With the dual pressure of price reduction and capacity utilization decline, the fuel vehicle industry chain may have another big risk after real estate.

Although most of the electric vehicle manufacturers are losing money, the rapid development of electric vehicles has forced more vehicle manufacturers to take care of the growing market demand. Some auto companies have suspended fuel cell vehicles with immature infrastructure.

More importantly, any kind of powered vehicle needs to be equipped with corresponding infrastructureIn 2022, the total number of gas stations in China will reach 115000, and the number of charging infrastructure will reach 5.2 million. If the hydrogen refueling station is put into operation, it will be equivalent to three sets of infrastructure for vehicles with little change in the total amount. Behind the infrastructure construction is the energy supply system, which will undoubtedly increase the operating cost of the whole energy system, resulting in repeated investment and oversupply.

In contrast, the construction cost and energy source of charging piles are very simple, while the hydrogen energy supply system has a long industrial chain, high cost, high technical difficulty, and uncertain downstream demand. Therefore, the investment enthusiasm of energy enterprises in hydrogenation stations is also squeezed out.

2, economic downturn, where does the money come from?

The reason why China has become an important country in the global renewable energy revolution, on the one hand, the third energy revolution is the energy from the resource industry to the manufacturing industry. China happens to be a low-cost, large-scale manufacturing country. On the other hand, the development of alternative energy requires A large amount of subsidies to support the transition period from demonstration to large-scale production of photovoltaic, wind power, electric vehicles and other industries, china has achieved the third energy revolution.

However, this is not the whole process. After all, wind power and photovoltaics are volatile and need to be solved by energy storage. So far, it cannot be said that electric vehicles have got rid of resource constraints and environmental constraints. At this stage, electric vehicles are only for China. Realize the substitution of coal for oil"Energy security" does not really solve the emission problem; and in the future, the harmless recycling of batteries is a huge uncertainty. Hydrogen energy is still expected to change both upstream energy supply and downstream automotive industry.

But hydrogen energyThe incentive policy of "replacing compensation with awards" will be introduced in 2021, and the "medium-and long-term development strategy" will be introduced in 2022, which can be described as "born in troubled times". Three years after the epidemic, government finances at all levels are no longer comparable to when electric vehicles were launched, and even though Japan, South Korea, the United States and Europe have given massive subsidies to the hydrogen industry and made a demonstration, China's subsidies to the hydrogen industry have been stretched and unable to follow suit.

3, heavy concept light industry, hydrogen energy industry chain did not form a joint force.

The benefits of hydrogen to energy security and climate change are self-evident, although in the pastIn more than 50 years of exploration, the technical path of fuel cell vehicles has been basically verified, and the conditions for the closed loop of the industrial chain are basically met. The capital-driven technical route has made this industry not yet industrialized, and it is already blooming. We can determine green hydrogen in the future. The importance of energy, but it is impossible to determine whether the future application will be fuel cells, hydrogen internal combustion engines, green methanol or green ammonia.

Similarly, although the high-pressure hydrogen storage technology is relatively mature, due to the long-distance limitation of high-pressure storage and transportation, various technical routes such as solid-state hydrogen storage, liquid hydrogen storage, and organic liquid compound hydrogen storage have also come out to seize the market. The competition of various technical routes is certainly a good thing, but the market also has the phenomenon of emphasizing concepts and neglecting industries. To a certain extent, investment is also scattered.

We will find that there are various forms of demonstration projects in various places, including hydrogen energy vehicles, hydrogen internal combustion engines, methanol vehicles, as well as hydrogen energy ships, hydrogen energy locomotives, hydrogen energy unmanned aerial vehicles and hydrogen energy bicycles. However, obstacles in the hydrogen energy industry chain, such as the requirement of hydrogen hydrogenation stations to produce hydrogen in chemical parks and stations, have not yet been opened.

In a variety of technical routes can not be compared in terms of cost and efficiency, the corresponding supporting system has become less firm, and simple replication, scattered resources, scattered enterprise energy and capital, industrial ecological chain construction is loose, can not form a joint force.

4. The vehicle factory is not active. Where is Party A?

in the pastFor more than 50 years, especially the energy substitution promoted by California's zero carbon act has taken transportation vehicles as the starting point. However, except Toyota and Hyundai, fuel cell vehicles in other European and American countries have almost suspended the promotion of fuel cell vehicles. The scheme in North America and China is based on the product verification mode dominated by fuel cell enterprises. The performance of vehicle manufacturers is not positive, which is what we describe as "fuel cell industry without Party A". In this mode, fuel cells try to verify products in various scenarios, but they cannot achieve scale and industrialization.

Paying Attention to Real Demand and Strengthening Ecological Construction

Just like our previous review of the three waves of hydrogen energy and the opportunities ushered in by the third wave of hydrogen energy, God is not thin on the hydrogen energy industry. The conditions for the industrialization of fuel cell vehicles in the past ten years have basically been realized, and At this time, the consumption of renewable energy has become a problem that must be solved in the emerging energy system. The green hydrogen industry has been launched, and the key is to open up the industrial chain between supply and demand. I put forward several levels of demand at this stage in the Hyde hydrogen energy exchange.

1, deterministic demand: green methanol has become an alternative fuel for the shipbuilding industry.

On July 7, 2023, the revised greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy for ships at the 80th session of the Maritime Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) proposed to reach the peak of greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping as soon as possible, and to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or around that year, taking into account different national conditions. The International Civil Aviation Organization uses carbon offsets to solve the emission problem. The inland transportation of ships can use electric ships or fuel cell ships to reduce emissions. However, neither lithium-ion batteries nor fuel cells can load the kinetic energy of ocean-going ships. Green methanol has become the first choice for alternative energy.

Global marine alternative fuels are mainlyLNG (liquefied natural gas), LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), battery power, hydrogen fuel, biofuel, methanol fuel and green ammonia, etc. Clarkson pointed out in a report that alternative fuel ships accounted for more than half of the new ship orders for the first time in 2022, with a total of 577 alternative fuel ships ordered throughout the year, totaling 45 million GT, accounting for about 60% of the total new ship orders. By October this year, the number of ships 100 more than gross tons and using alternative fuels will reach 6% in terms of gross tons. The number of hand-held orders 100 more than gross tons and using alternative fuels reached 49% in terms of gross tons, of which 165 were hand-held orders for methanol ships, 118 of which were container ships.

Source: China Classification Society

There is no doubt that Maersk's green methanol ship orders have guided the direction of global methanol ships and stirred the supply chain market of green methanol. According to the ship order cycle, it is expected that the world's methanol ships will be put on the market one year later, and green methanol will usher in definite, large-scale and growing orders.

AccordingThe IMO emission reduction strategy is expected to replace about 63.06 million tons of fossil-based fuels with green fuels in 2030 and about 384.72 million tons of fossil-based fuels in 2050. According to the forecast of China Classification Society, the demand for green hydrogen in the marine fuel preparation industry will reach 18.14 million -25.37 million tons by 2030, 70.13 million -98.07 million tons by 2040 and 110.66 million -154.76 million tons by 2050.

Note: AccordingIn 2025, the fuel consumption will be 0.3 billion tons, and the annual consumption will increase by 1%. Source: China Classification Society.

Demand to be further confirmed: energy storage and industrial green hydrogen (raw material or reducing agent)

Since 2022, there has been a significant increase in the number of green hydrogen projects at home and abroad, but where exactly the green hydrogen produced by these projects will be used for green ammonia or green methanol, or direct energy storage, seems to be quite certain, but the actual mechanism for starting green hydrogen projects at home and abroad is not exactly the same,

For example, Europe not only has a high carbon tax, but also directly subsidizes the difference between green hydrogen and gray hydrogen for synthetic ammonia or synthetic methanol. Under this mechanism, the demand for green ammonia and green methanol is relatively real. Green methanol and green ammonia are partly used as alternative fuels in the shipbuilding industry, and more from the emission reduction needs of industrial enterprises.

But the Chinese project is a renewable energy project.It is the same thing as the trigger factor of electrochemical energy storage under the mechanism of "compulsory distribution and storage". Under this mechanism, investors of photovoltaic and wind power must support a certain proportion (e.g. 20%) of energy storage or hydrogen energy installation. However, it is not clear how to mobilize the enthusiasm of downstream users. Therefore, the demand for emission reduction of chemical enterprises still needs to be adjusted and further confirmed. Similar to the emission reduction of chemical enterprises is hydrogen metallurgy, which also needs to make up the difference or carbon tax mechanism.

Of course, for export products, the carbon tax in Europe and the United States is a driving force, and the start of the domestic market requires relevant supporting policies.

3, the need to build demand: vehicle hydrogen-based energy.

It seems that the most certain needs need to be cultivated and constructed today, many of which are man-made rather than technical bottlenecks, so further industrial ecological construction is needed. ToIn 2024, with the domestic IV hydrogen storage bottle standard and 30MPa long tube trailer put into production, hydrogen energy storage and transportation costs will be greatly reduced.

However, it is also necessary to break the restrictions on hydrogen production in the chemical park and station of the hydrogenation station, and establish an incentive mechanism to promote the enthusiasm of the vehicle plant, such as the use of differential electricity prices or differential road rights in areas where hydrogen energy is rich and low-cost, and improve the infrastructure, including hydrogenation stations, hydrogen pipelines, hydrogen storage standards, etc.

In addition to the fuel cell scheme, Geely's methanol vehicle is also being piloted, and some people are verifying the effects of ammonia power and hydrogen internal combustion engine. Hydrogen internal combustion can take care of the supporting systems of fuel vehicles, while methanol or ammonia as power can take care of the original infrastructure, and storage and transportation will be more convenient. These technical routes are being verified, so the future may not be purely hydrogen energy but hydrogen-based energy.

In the field of vehicle transportation, in addition to commercial vehicles and passenger cars, rail transit and two-wheeled vehicles are all application markets for fuel cells or hydrogen internal combustion engines.

4, based on the demand for green hydrogen: natural gas hydrogen.

This is a green hydrogen alternative based on reducing dependence on natural gas imports and lowering emissions. At present, the proportion of hydrogen mixed with natural gas is not high. Experts from the pipeline believe that under the condition of low pressure, the chance of hydrogen embrittlement of hydrogen-facing materials is not great,The cost of updating 20% hydrogen loading may not be large.

At present, hydrogen mixing of natural gas has been demonstrated at many points. In fact, this is a scheme for direct transportation and utilization of green hydrogen from renewable energy, which is a very realistic and technically easy to implement demand.

5, another way of demand: hydrogen agriculture, hydrogen consumption.

The industrial chain of hydrogen agriculture and hydrogen consumption is relatively short, and there is no special requirement for storage and transportation. It is now in use. From the experiments in Shanghai, Guangdong and other places, there are many scientific research achievements in hydrogen health and hydrogen agriculture. For example, vegetables, grain and aquatic products cultivated with hydrogen water can continuously increase the output, remove agricultural residues and optimize the taste. In terms of hydrogen health, lifestyles such as hydrogen-rich water, hydrogen masks, hydrogen absorption, and hydrogen baths are also becoming fashionable.

6. Other demand markets

In fact, distributed power generation has been a new battlefield opened up by fuel cell companies in the past two years. However, because the electricity price in my country is relatively cheap, it is difficult to meet the demand in Japan and Europe, but it is suitable for special scenarios such as base stations and islands.

In addition, aircraft, especially drones, are also the future consumer market for hydrogen energy.

In short, the large-scale demand for hydrogen energy has begun, but it has to be said that the most certain large-scale demand market is the demand for ocean-going ships promoted by the International Maritime Organization. More domestic demand also needs to straighten out the industrial chain and establish hydrogen energy. A mechanism for sustainable development. The technical conditions for hydrogen energy industrialization are already in place. Although the current economy is relatively sluggish, the path of the hydrogen energy industry's own cost reduction has been clear. More anxiety and obstacles are no longer technology, but policies and mechanisms, as well as lithium batteries and fuel cells.Comparison and cognition of "environment constraint" and "resource constraint.

At present, China's economy is facing great pressure, the real estate industry is down, the automobile industry is facing the risk of fuel vehicles and energy fracture, and the pressure of oil company market being divided. However, the resource constraints and environmental constraints of electric vehicles are difficult to independently bear the future of the automobile industry. In the future, there may be economic effects that eliminate fuel vehicles but cannot make up for the loss of fuel vehicles, nor can it improve the social effects of transportation vehicles. Hydrogen energy not only has the function of reviving traditional industries, can take into account the gradual upgrading of traditional automobile industry and energy industry, but also promote the safety, intelligence, and low carbonization of energy system. It is the future industry with the largest scale and the strongest industrial driving force.

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